Freight Market Outlook 2026: What Shippers Should Expect in 2026
As we enter 2026, the transportation industry is moving into a period of realignment. After years of volatility and contraction, early shipping industry forecast suggest stabilization is underway, though true demand growth has yet to fully materialize. For shippers, carriers, and intermediaries, this will be a year where preparation, data discipline, and smart contracting make the difference. This early Freight Market Outlook 2026 will guide you through key trends and what the experts are saying.
Demand Remains Soft, but Stabilizing
Manufacturing is still slowing, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropping to 47.9 in December, its lowest level since October 2024. This marks the third month in a row of decline. The slowdown is mainly due to lower production and reduced inventory levels, showing continued uncertainty in the industry.
There are some early positive signs, including small improvements in new orders, backlogs, and export demand. Customer inventory levels also remain low, which could lead to restocking. While these trends are encouraging, several months of improvement are needed to signal a true recovery. Historically, this type of stabilization often leads to increased freight demand over time.
Imports and exports have also contracted for several months as shippers delay purchasing decisions due to ongoing tariff uncertainty. A pending Supreme Court ruling could remove this planning obstacle and trigger a surge in delayed import activity. Until then, inventory levels remain tight, setting the stage for potential restocking pressure once confidence improves.
LTL Carrier Bankruptcy – Standard Forwarding Freight
Another development affecting capacity in early 2026 is the abrupt bankruptcy of Standard Forwarding Freight, a long-standing LTL carrier. The company ceased operations late in 2025 with little advance notice, leaving shippers to find new capacity quickly. This unexpected exit removed LTL capacity from important regional lanes, tightened pricing, and highlighted the importance of diversified carrier relationships and real-time visibility when carriers unexpectedly leave the marketplace.
Monetary Policy Shifts Create Tailwinds
One of the biggest macro developments is the Federal Reserve ending its quantitative tightening program in late 2025. Since then, liquidity has started to improve. Short-term interest rates are falling, easing working capital pressure for shippers and carriers. This shift historically supports investment, inventory rebuilding, and increased freight activity as the year progresses.
Capacity Tightens, Rates Rise
While demand remains muted, pricing is rising due to shrinking capacity. Spot truckload rates now exceed contract rates, an early signal of a tightening market. Tender rejections are increasing as carriers chase higher spot opportunities.
Capacity is being constrained by new regulatory enforcement, including English proficiency requirements and changes affecting non-domiciled CDL holders. Thousands of drivers have already exited the market, reducing available capacity across modes. As a result, dry van, reefer, and flatbed rates are all trending upward.
LTL and Truckload Market Outlook 2026
Truckload rates are rising as new regulations, tighter enforcement, and economic pressures continue to reduce available capacity across the market. With fewer drivers and carriers operating leaner fleets, spot and contract pricing are trending upward in the near term. This capacity squeeze is expected to persist, putting cost pressure on shippers that rely heavily on full truckload moves.
Historically, shippers begin shifting a portion of their freight to the LTL market as a cost-saving strategy. On the LTL side, carriers are seeking moderate rate increases for 2026, generally in the 4 to 6 percent range. However, data-driven shippers running disciplined RFPs are often negotiating closer to 1 to 3 percent increases. This shift highlights the growing importance of network optimization, mode shifting, and strategic bidding to manage transportation spend in a tightening market.
Overall Outlook
The goods economy is likely to improve gradually in 2026, just as transportation capacity tightens. Higher truckload and LTL rates should be expected. The right mindset is preparedness, not optimism or pessimism. Shippers who plan ahead, stay agile, and rely on accurate data will be best positioned to navigate the shifting market.