As winter takes hold across the U.S., the freight market is navigating a season of shifting capacity and soft demand. This Winter Freight Industry Update highlights current trends in truckload and LTL shipping and offers insight into what shippers can expect as we head into 2026.
Truckload Capacity Exits the Market
One of the biggest stories this season is the continued exit of capacity from the truckload market. Carriers are reducing available trucks on the road, creating tighter conditions for shippers. Several factors are contributing to this trend:
- Economic pressures: Rising operational costs and market uncertainty are prompting some carriers to scale back and consolidation of carriers.
- Regulatory changes: English-Language proficiency requirements, non-domciled CDL restrictions, and driver school crackdowns are impacting the supply.
Truckload rates increased slightly through early November despite reduced capacity. However, with demand remaining low, the market remains soft, and a rebound is now expected around mid-2026. Historically, previous freight market recoveries were triggered by reductions in capacity, but as Morgan Stanley notes in a recent FreightWaves article, renewed demand is needed to “ignite the spark” for the next market upswing.
LTL Market Shows Soft Demand
The less-than-truckload (LTL) market is experiencing soft demand to end 2025. Many shippers are consolidating shipments or delaying non-urgent freight. Despite this current softness, experts forecast a shift in 2026 as shippers look for a cost-effective alternative to truckload.
This makes now an important time for shippers to evaluate their strategies, optimize freight contracts, and plan for the potential surge in LTL demand next year.
An economist that recently met with TLI forecasted a seasonal increase in LTL demand from January through February 2026. We are already consolidating shipments where it makes sense to maximize savings for our shippers. Let’s work together to evaluate strategies for the coming year, and we are happy to provide named contract pricing where appropriate to help drive additional cost savings.
Preparing for Winter Freight Challenges
Winter weather adds another layer of complexity for shippers, and we hope to talk about it in this freight industry update. Freeze protection, route planning, and flexible scheduling remain critical for avoiding delays and maintaining cargo integrity. Carriers are emphasizing proactive communication with shippers to mitigate seasonal disruptions.
Check out this article TLI wrote on Protect from Freeze: Link to Article
NMFC® Docket 2025-2 is Now Live
The National Motor Freight Traffic Association (NMFTA) has published the latest NMFC updates (NMFC is a registered trademark of the NMFTA). Docket 2025-2 targets several commodities following the release of Docket 2025-1 in July 2025. For a complete list of affected NMFC codes, please visit NMFTA’s official docket page.
For assistance with these updates, reach out to your Translogistics, Inc. (TLI) account representative or email marketing@shiptli.com.
Recap of Winter Freight Industry Update
In summary, the winter freight market is facing reduced truckload capacity and soft demand, keeping rates relatively stable but the overall market subdued. LTL demand remains soft for now, but experts anticipate moderate growth in 2026. Planning ahead and staying informed on market trends will be key for shippers navigating this season.
Acknowledgment of NMFTA’s Trademark
Whenever our educational content refers to the National Motor Freight Classification, we want readers to understand that the term NMFC is a registered trademark of the National Motor Freight Traffic Association (NMFTA). Our goal is to provide helpful industry education while also respecting the intellectual property rights of the NMFTA. Whenever we discuss topics related to freight classification, density, or commodity groupings, we recognize that NMFC identifies the official classification standard maintained and licensed by the NMFTA.
NMFTA is the owner of the National Motor Freight Classification®, more commonly known as the NMFC® (“NMFC”).