Capacity Is Tightening Fast And the Data Has Never Looked Quite Like This

Monthly Transportation Trends Market Intelligence

April 2026 brought record-setting moves in logistics, a resilient manufacturing sector, rising commodity costs, and a legal shakeup for tariff policy. Here is what every shipper needs to understand right now.

The Logistics Surge: LMI® Hits Near Record Territory

The April 2026 Logistics Manager’s Index® (LMI®) came in at 69.9, a jump of 4.2 points from March’s reading of 65.7.¹ To put that number in context, this is the fastest rate of expansion the composite index has seen since March 2022, when it registered 76.2 during the height of post-pandemic freight activity. More remarkably, this ranks as the second-fastest rate of expansion ever recorded across any metric in the LMI’s 9.5-year history, a statistic that should immediately command attention from every shipper and logistics manager reading this report. The market is not just recovering; it is accelerating, and the data strongly suggests that the conditions driving this expansion are unlikely to reverse quickly.

The LMI is a composite index derived from eight sub-metrics spanning inventory, warehousing, and transportation.  Any reading above 50.0 signals expansion; a reading knocking on the door of 70.0 means the entire logistics ecosystem is moving at a high clip simultaneously.² When inventory levels, warehousing utilization, and transportation utilization are all expanding in unison — as they are today — it creates a compounding pressure on capacity throughout the supply chain. For shippers, this translates directly into harder-to-find equipment, longer lead times for carrier commitments, and upward pressure on the rates you are negotiating right now.

Warehousing data reinforces this picture clearly. As we can see, Warehousing Utilization rose to 64.4 (up +4.6 from 59.8), while Warehousing Prices climbed to 72.7 (up +5.3), both trending in the expanding direction at a faster rate. Warehousing Capacity, meanwhile, continued to contract at 45.5, meaning space is getting harder to come by at exactly the moment more companies are trying to stock up. Taken together, these three sub-metrics tell a consistent story: distribution networks are running hot, and the relief valve of available storage is quietly closing.

Table 1 — Logistics Manager’s Index®: April 2026 Snapshot

Index	Apr 2026	Mar 2026	M/M Change	Direction	Change Rate
LMI® (Composite)	69.9	65.7	+4.2	Expanding	Faster
Inventory Levels	56.3	54.8	+1.5	Expanding	Faster
Inventory Costs	74.7	76.2	−1.5	Expanding	Slower
Warehousing Capacity	45.5	46.0	−0.5	Contracting	Faster
Warehousing Utilization	64.4	59.8	+4.6	Expanding	Faster
Warehousing Prices	72.7	67.4	+5.3	Expanding	Faster
Transportation Capacity	28.4	39.2	−10.9	Contracting	Faster
Transportation Utilization	69.6	62.9	+6.7	Expanding	Faster
Transportation Prices	95.0	89.4	+5.6	Expanding	Faster

“The 66.6-point spread between Transportation Prices and Transportation Capacity is the largest delta we have ever read. Taken together, this means that we have never before tracked the transportation metric getting simultaneously tighter or more expensive.”³

-LOGISTICS MANAGER’S INDEX®, April 2026 Report

The transportation sub-metrics deserve special attention because they have reached extremes the LMI has never before captured at the same time. Transportation Capacity plunged to 28.4, the second-lowest reading in the index’s history, while Transportation Prices simultaneously surged to 95.0, just five points from the theoretical ceiling. he resulting spread of 66.6 points between these two metrics is an all-time record, and the implications are straightforward: the truck market is extremely tight, and carriers are pricing that tightness aggressively. According to DAT the supply (trucks) has contracted 7.4% Y/Y while demand (loads) is increasing at a rate of 42.4% in Y/Y comparisons.⁴

Economic Crosscurrents: Growth, Inflation, and Policy in April

The logistics industry does not operate in a vacuum, and the broader economic backdrop in April 2026 is both encouraging and complicated. U.S. retail sales rose 1.7% in March, an encouraging number that sounds healthy on the surface but requires closer reading.⁵ When gasoline is stripped out of the calculation, the figure drops sharply to just 0.6%, indicating that much of the headline growth was driven by fuel costs rather than genuine consumer demand for goods. For shippers, this distinction matters: a fuel-driven sales spike does not necessarily mean actual growth or that your downstream customers are ordering more product, however it does mean your transportation costs are climbing regardless.

Inflation is clearly influencing policy decisions at the highest levels of the U.S. financial system. In what will go down as one of Chairman Powell’s final acts leading the Federal Reserve, the board opted to hold interest rates steady for the third consecutive meeting, resisting pressure to cut despite slowing non-fuel consumer activity.⁶ The Fed did signal, however, that “additional” rate reductions may be on the horizon, which analysts broadly interpreted as a lean toward monetary easing in the months ahead. For capital-intensive logistics operations, carriers investing in fleet, shippers managing large credit lines, the prospect of lower borrowing costs later this year is a meaningful tailwind worth tracking. This tailwind would be a positive force for shippers increasing the rate of growth.

On the tariff front, April brought a meaningful piece of good news for importers buried beneath the broader policy turbulence. As of April 20th, more than 300,000 U.S. importers became eligible to file claims for tariff refunds, with the first wave of payments expected within 60 to 90 days.⁷ At the same time, a federal court panel ruled 2-to-1 that the administration’s 10% across-the-board tariffs enacted under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 were legally invalid, a second major judicial blow to the administration’s tariff strategy following an earlier Supreme Court ruling.⁸ The legal environment for tariffs remains fluid, but shippers who have been absorbing elevated import costs should consult with trade counsel about potential refund eligibility and monitor court proceedings closely.

⚖️ Tariff Policy Watch: What Shippers Should Know Now

• Refund window open: 300,000+ importers are now eligible to file tariff refund claims. The tariff refund window opened on April 20, 2026.⁹ First refunds expected within 60–90 days.
• Court ruling: A federal appeals panel struck down 10% across-the-board tariffs enacted under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 in a 2-1 decision.
• Uncertainty remains: The administration is expected to appeal. Importers should consult trade counsel before assuming any rate relief is permanent.
• International spot rates rising: China → North Europe ocean lanes are up 10% week-over-week; Southeast Asia → Europe lanes are up 18% week-over-week, independent of tariff policy.

Manufacturing Holds Steady: What the PMI® Report Tells Shippers

Three of the five PMI sub-indexes that directly factor into the composite reading: New Orders, Production, and Supplier Deliveries, remained in expansion territory, consistent with March. New Orders came in at 54.1 (up +0.6), a healthy signal that the demand pipeline is being replenished. Supplier Deliveries, however, registered 60.5, which signals that deliveries are slowing, meaning it is taking longer for manufacturers to receive materials. A reading above 50.0 here is a warning light, not a green light: in PMI methodology, slower deliveries reflect constrained upstream supply chains, not increased efficiency. Employment contracted at 46.4 (down −2.3 from 48.7), continuing a trend of workforce caution among manufacturers that has now stretched 31 consecutive months. (Institute for Supply Management, April 2026)

Table 2 — ISM Manufacturing PMI®: April 2026 at a Glance

Index	Apr Index	Mar Index	% Change	Direction	Change Rate	Trend
Manufacturing PMI®	52.7	52.7	0.0	Growing	Same	4
New Orders	54.1	53.5	+0.6	Growing	Faster	4
Production	53.4	55.1	−1.7	Growing	Slower	6
Employment	46.4	48.7	−2.3	Contracting	Faster	31
Supplier Deliveries	60.5	58.9	+1.7	Slowing	Faster	5
Inventories	49.0	47.1	+1.9	Contracting	Slower	12
Customers’ Inventories	39.1	40.1	−1.0	Too Low!	Faster	19
Prices	84.6	78.3	+6.3	Contracting	Faster	19
Backlog of Orders	51.4	54.4	−3.0	Growing	Slower	4
New Export Orders	47.9	49.9	−2.0	Contracting	Faster	2
Imports	50.3	52.6	−2.3	Growing	Slower	3

Commodity Cost Pressure

Commodity cost pressures are broad and intensifying, which is meaningful for shippers because these costs flow downstream. The ISM’s April report listed an extensive range of commodities rising in price, from aluminum, copper, and steel to freight itself, electronic components, and petroleum-based plastics. Shortages are concentrated in electrical components (reported by 10 respondents), electronic components (14 respondents), semiconductors, and aluminum, all critical inputs for industrial and transportation equipment manufacturing. Meanwhile, export orders contracted for the second consecutive month while imports grew for the third straight month, reflecting a domestic demand tilt that is pulling more goods inbound even as overseas buyers pull back.

One PMI sub-index deserves particular attention: the Prices Index surged to 84.6, up a substantial 6.3 points from March’s already-elevated 78.3. This is the highest reading in this cycle, and at 84.6 it sits firmly in “increasing at a rapid rate” territory. For shippers whose products contain metals, plastics, resins, or electronic components, which is to say, most shippers, expect those input cost increases to work their way through into supplier invoices over the coming weeks and months. Customers’ Inventories remain at just 39.1 (classified as “Too Low”), which historically signals that restocking buying activity is likely to accelerate, adding further volume pressure to an already-strained freight network. (Institute for Supply Management, April 2026)

April 2026 Commodity Pressure Summary (ISM PMI® Report)

The Spot Market and Fuel: Numbers Every Shipper Should be Aware of

Spot market data from the week of May 4 thru 10 paints a picture of a freight market with sharply rising year-over-year volumes and week-to-week rate pressure across most modes.  Spot load posts increased 3.2% week-over-week and are up a striking 42.4% compared to this same month one year ago, meaning shippers who are benchmarking freight costs against 2025 rates are operating with an outdated reference point.¹¹ Spot truck posts are down 7.4% year-over-year, which means the load-to-truck ratio, the fundamental supply-and-demand signal in the spot market, is tightening considerably. The 2026 load to truck ratio in April was registered at 7.49, up substantially from April 2025’s reading of 4.48. This means that there are 7.49 loads available per truck, and the higher the ratio typically the higher the $/mile is.¹² When loads are rising and available trucks are falling, the pricing outcome is predictable: rates go up, and shippers who lack strong contracted carrier relationships feel that pressure most acutely.

Looking at specific modes, the data reveals meaningful differences in market tightness that should inform your procurement strategy by equipment type. The Reefer (refrigerated) segment is showing the most acute tightening week-over-week, with load-to-truck ratios up 12.3% in a single week, an unusually sharp move that may reflect seasonal produce and perishable food demand beginning to ramp. Van load-to-truck ratios are up 4.6% week-over-week and an eye-opening 29.6% year-over-year, confirming that dry van capacity is tightening in a sustained, structural way, not just a one-week blip. Flatbed, meanwhile, is up a staggering 124.1% year-over-year in load-to-truck ratio, reflecting the surge in construction materials, industrial equipment, and tariff-sensitive steel and aluminum shipments moving domestically. The current flatbed load-to-truck ratio is 72.26 for April 2026 verse a reading of 35.28 in April 2025.¹³ Flatbed spot rates are up 6.1% week-over-week; reefer rates are up 3.0% week-over-week; and van rates are up 1.3% week-over-week.

Diesel Update:

Diesel is the single most consequential cost variable in domestic trucking, and the current EIA national average of $5.640 per gallon, up more than $2.14 from this time last year, is reshaping carrier operating economics in real time.¹⁴ Shippers are increasingly approaching TLI to request historical FSC data so they can accurately apply fuel surcharges to their invoices and recover transportation costs.

The signals coming out of April 2026 are unusually aligned, all pointing in the same direction: the cost and complexity of freight movement are increasing in tandem at a pace not seen since the post-pandemic surge. The Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) is showing near-record expansion, the gap between Transportation Prices and Capacity continues to widen, diesel prices are climbing, and manufacturing activity is sustaining a steady flow of new orders. Taken together, these indicators suggest this is not a period for passive supply chain management.

TLI is actively monitoring these conditions and working to stay ahead of them on your behalf. In anticipation of rising pricing, we strategically initiated RFPs to help protect our shippers from volatility, and we remain prepared to do so again as needed. We’re also available to support you in any other way that helps stabilize and strengthen your network. If you’d like to discuss further, please don’t hesitate to reach out and we’ll set up a call.

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Citations

1. Logistics Managers’ Index. (2026, May 5). April 2026 Logistics Managers’ Index. Retrieved May 11, 2026, from https://www.the-lmi.com/april-2026-logistics-managers-index.html ↩︎
2. Rogers, Z. S., Rogers, D. S., & Leuschner, R. (2018). The Logistics Managers’ Index. Rutgers Business Review. https://rbr.business.rutgers.edu/sites/default/files/documents/rbr-030102.pdf ↩︎
3. Logistics Managers’ Index. (2026, May 5). April 2026 Logistics Managers’ Index. https://www.the-lmi.com/april-2026-logistics-managers-index.html ↩︎
4. DAT Freight & Analytics. (n.d.). DAT Trendlines. Retrieved May 11, 2026, from https://www.dat.com/trendlines ↩︎
5. U.S. Census Bureau. (n.d.). Monthly retail trade: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales. Retrieved May 11, 2026, from https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html ↩︎
6. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2026, April 29). Monetary policy report (monetary20260429a1). https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260429a1.pdf ↩︎
7. U.S. Customs and Border Protection. (n.d.). IEEPA frequently asked questions. Retrieved May 11, 2026, from https://www.cbp.gov/trade/programs-administration/trade-remedies/IEEPA-FAQ ↩︎
8. Graham, B. (2026, May 7). US trade court rules against Trump’s 10% global tariff. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/us-trade-court-rules-against-trumps-10-global-tariff-2026-05-07/ ↩︎
9. U.S. Customs and Border Protection. (n.d.). IEEPA duty refunds. https://www.cbp.gov/trade/programs-administration/trade-remedies/ieepa-duty-refunds ↩︎
10. Institute for Supply Management. (2026, April). ISM® manufacturing PMI® report. https://www.ismworld.org/globalassets/pub/research-and-surveys/rob/pmi/f3dz202604pmi.pdf ↩︎
11. DAT Freight & Analytics. (n.d.). Trendlines. https://www.dat.com/trendlines ↩︎
12. DAT Freight & Analytics. (n.d.). Van demand and capacity. https://www.dat.com/trendlines/van/demand-and-capacity ↩︎
13. DAT Freight & Analytics. (n.d.). Trendlines flatbed demand and capacity. Retrieved May 11, 2026, from https://www.dat.com/trendlines/flatbed/demand-and-capacity ↩︎
14. U.S. Energy Information Administration. (n.d.). Gasoline and diesel fuel update. Retrieved May 11, 2026, from https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/ ↩︎